This is Not a Titling Error, But it is an Unusual Article
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By: James E. Tew
A unique article in a unique format
BC readers, I have never before written an article like this. I originally wrote this article in 2009 when, as usual, I needed a monthly topic. I make no claim to be an apicultural historian, but I can readily claim to now being seventy-eight, and to have kept bees for fifty-three consecutively years. In 2009, at sixteen-year intervals, I chose 1977, 1993, and 2025, as my review years. I rarely try to predict our apicultural future, but for some reason, I took a shot in the attached article.
The oddity of this article is that I am including the original article, in unmodified format, and where appropriate, I have made “modern” comments. I enjoyed re-reading my article and I thought that I would see if I could make it enjoyable to you. Please remember, the following article is presented in the unaltered original time format. Here goes…
What’s so special about 2025?
Well, being unable to foresee the future, I don’t know of anything that will be special about the year, 2025. The truth is that I have been asked to present a keynote presentation at the Ohio Beekeepers Spring bee meeting next weekend and this was the topic on which I was asked to speak. The group wanted something pertaining to the near future rather than a look at beekeeping far into the future. I suppose some guesses can be made about the chosen year – 2025. I want to see if I can look backwards – which at one time was the future – to see if I can see trends that will predict events sixteen years from today.
Those who are older, please help me out
I am shocked to do the simple arithmetic and realize that I will be 77 years old in 2025. Simply stated – wow! But looked at another way, sixteen years ago, I was 61. Simply stated again – wow!
In the talk I am to give next weekend, I realize that the bee program planners are looking for optimistic predictions and hopes for a bright, meaningful future, but I am trying to imagine a 77-year-old Jim Tew sitting at a progressive, modern bee meeting in 2025.
Give me just a minute to accept the mental image I have of that meeting. I have written in previous articles that those of us who stay in beekeeping become inexorably incorporated into beekeeping. While you and I age, beekeeping evolves and changes into something “newish.” We as human beekeepers just grow into older beekeepers. I got my first two hives of bees in 1973. That means I have – roughly – lived through two 16-year cycles. Maybe I can take selected beekeeping attributes from my first two cycles to shoot a trend-line out to 2025 (Really – will anyone remember this article in 2025? What do I have to lose?).
An update, I must now tell you that I am officially seventy-eight. That continues to be shocking to me even to this day.
But first, some comments on predicting with the unpredictable
Sometime during 1946, two years before my birth, Dr. Percy Spencer1, a scientist with the Raytheon Corporation, was researching radar technologies – specifically a vacuum tube called a magnetron. He noticed that a chocolate candy bar had melted in his shirt pocket as he was standing the near the vacuum tube device when it was being tested. Sensing something odd was on-going, he placed some popcorn kernels near the tube. Within a few minutes, popped corn apparently splattered all over his lab. Later he put an egg near the device to show a co-worker the effects of the magnetron. The hot egg exploded on the face of the curiously on-looker. Could a device with potential use in radar technology instead be used to cook food in the average home kitchen? We all know the answer to that. The very first microwave was six feet tall and weighed 750 pounds.
In 1928, Alexander Flemming2 noticed that a common mold Penicillium notatum destroyed colonies of Staphylococcus aureus. Though it had been observed innumerable times before, this casual observation was the beginning of the antibiotic era of medicine. Though others had noticed the mold’s effects, until then it was only considered to be a laboratory contaminant.
On a much more mundane – but important to me – subject, some of the best advances I have made in my use of Power Point and Photoshop have been due to key stroke errors. I call them the, “I didn’t know that would do that.” moment. Spencer was not trying to build a new type of modern oven. Flemming was not trying to develop an entirely new medical concept. And me – I was just trying to get my talks ready for the next meeting.
My point is that a lot of science and technology is highly predictable while a lot is simply blind luck – even mistaken luck. We depend on that unanticipated luck as a way to advance science. Though helpful, such breakthroughs are unpredictable. In this article, there is no way for me to predict such future blind-luck beekeeping happenings. Maybe I should just make some up.
Bee meetings in 1977, 1993, and 2025
1977: Beekeeping was enjoying a cyclic growth boom. People wanted healthy food with healthy sugars. I ate bean sprout sandwiches and had long, dark, slightly wavy hair. In fact, long hair was in style and angry bees loved it. New beekeepers wanted their own hives. Package bees and good quality queens were plentiful. Traditional beekeeping was a hot item. Local honey sold well. Attendance at meetings was good and was growing. Presenters used slide projectors or overhead projectors. Talks had to be assembled weeks in advance. Since slides could not be edited, audiences accepted the frequent bad slide as a way of life. There were no laser pointers.
1993: Sixteen years later, the Varroa mite was in the final stages of redesigning the bee industry of North America. Shock and dismay were common features of beekeeping as keepers who thought they would never get either tracheal or varroa mites. They had to accept the fact that their colonies would succumb to the mite invasion. Yet the public was fascinated by the concept of the Killer Bee. Pollination and concern for all bees’ welfare was treated shabbily by the public.
But how could the public be blamed? Everywhere they were told that they would be stung to death by marauding killer bees. Beekeepers and landowners were concerned about legal issues. In some instances, it was difficult to find bee yards. Attendance at meetings dropped. Beekeepers left the industry. Numbers of both bees and beekeepers declined.
From an income standpoint, honey production was still more important than pollination. In 1993, computers were just beginning to change the way programs are presented. The world-wide-web was still very young.
2025: Beekeepers as old as Jim Tew, who is now 77 in 2025, are still at meetings and still remember the old bee days of the ‘60s and ‘70s. But unfortunately, much of that old information is nearly useless. Most presentations are electronic and are streamed from the web in real-time with immediate feedback between the audience and the speaker. In 2025, there are fewer full time university bee scientists and state regulators, so much of the program must make use of virtual speakers. In fact, many of the older people – like Jim – don’t actually attend the meeting but are there in electronic format. Actual attendance at the meeting is no longer required. Electronic devices that are a combination of today’s cell phone, (the Blackberry), computers and wristwatches will be used to gather bee information and participate in bee meetings.
Varroa mites are still around but are not much of an issue. Enough time has passed that an improved relationship has developed between bee strains that are more mite resistant and mites that are more bee tolerant. This will allow more time and effort to be directed to issues of virus infections and other pathogenic issues. Pending an unexpected breakthrough in genetic procedures, bees and queens will be pretty much as they are today but the way information is delivered will be significantly different.
Oh wow, Jim! Pretty good job on that prediction. I’m not sure that we can actually ignore Varroa infestations today, but the panic has clearly subsided (for now).
Bees in 1977, 1993, and 2025
1977: I could buy 3# packages bees for $18-$25. The options of 2#, 3#, 4#, and 5# packages were common. This season, I will be paying about $72 for a three-pound package. In 1977, the U.S. Mail Service was the primary source of delivery. The Railroad Express Agency (REA) had been an option for delivering bees and equipment, but it was waning in importance.
Many “races” of queen stocks were available. Caucasian and Carniolan queens could still be purchased from several producers. Midnight and Starline queens were popular and were high quality queens. American foulbrood was the frightful disease of the day, but antibiotics and sulfa drugs were seen as modern techniques for combating such diseases.
A.I. Root, Dadant, and Kelley were the major equipment producers and were helpful in getting new beekeepers off the ground and supporting established beekeepers. The A.G. Woodman Company in Grand Rapids, Michigan manufactured quality smokers for many years. During the ‘70s, the Woodman Company was bought out by the Dadant Company. All in all, the ‘70s was one of beekeeping Golden Ages. I am happy I was there for the experience.
1993: Package bees were still readily available and reasonable affordable. In 1990, Africanized honey bees had colonized southern Texas. By 1993, the infamous bee would turn to the West – much to the temporary relief of Eastern beekeepers.
Some beekeepers and some states were still killing bees in order to save them. During the late ‘80s and early ‘90s, honey bees afflicted with tracheal mites or varroa mites stood a good chance of being killed to control the spread of mites. Even today, 2009, Africanized bees are normally killed to protect European honey bee population.
To the honey bee population, this was much like “removing bad blood from an ailing patient.” In and around 1993, there was much confusion about the best type of bee to have. It should be hygienic, but the science was not yet perfect to breed hygienic bees. By 1995, all U.S. states will have documented Varroa mite finds. During the 1990’s, beekeepers loved their bees as much as the beekeepers of 2009, but mites and Africanized honey bees made it a tough love.
2025: Sixteen years from today, bees and their keepers will still be here. It’s more difficult to get package bees. Shipping and handling packages are expensive. However, in 2025, many beekeepers are making Autumn splits and are wintering them in special insulated nucleus hive boxes.
The nutritional needs of these overwintered bees will be better understood. The funding made available to study Colony Collapse Disorder made these advances possible. Trace elements and vitamin needs are now better met. Instrumental insemination techniques have been improved to the point that many queens are instrumentally mated. This improves bee genetics and allows for resistance to migration of Killer Bee genes. In 2025, bees still sting, but genetic techniques will soon be available to breed stingless honey bees. While beekeepers of the ‘70s don’t care for such neutered bees, modern beekeepers of the 2025 think they would love them.
Though Africanized honey bees are no longer a major social issue, they have firmly colonized most of the package bee areas. In 2025, there is reason to hope that within a few more years adequate control procedures will be developed for insects like Africanized honey bees, fire ants, beetle pests.
Some hits and some misses here. I really missed it on having stingless honey bees by now. I don’t know. Can I give myself about a 65% on this prediction?
The foam hive is no longer manufactured.
Bee management and pollination in 1977, 1993, and 2025
1977: Bee stocks were hardy and seemingly thrived even under the worst conditions. Many – if not most – new beekeepers took up bees because they found a swarm on their property.
Pioneers of the day, like Brother Adam, were busy selecting for the perfect strain of honey bees. Bee breeders have been doing this selection process since the very beginnings of our bee industry.
In 1977, chemicals were freely used but not as much as in the years immediately following World War II. Sodium sulfathiazole was still available from bee supply companies. In 1977, bee strains seemed strong and well adapted to their environment. American foulbrood was the biggest pathogenic fear.
Commercial beekeepers and sideline beekeepers enjoyed significant numbers. It appeared that the industry was poised to grow. Though pollination was touted and honey bees were called “angels of agriculture” commercial bee pollination was still small. Income from pollination subsidized honey prices. Otherwise, it was business as usual. In fact, the beekeeper of 2009 could readily work bee 1977 colonies (Don’t expect to see plastic frames in 1977 hives).
1993: While the varroa/tracheal mite issue was still hot in 1993, for many U.S. beekeepers the shock was beginning to wear off. Six years earlier (1987), Canada had closed its border to the importation of bees from the U.S. This was a staggering blow to U.S. package and queen producers – one that would take years for recovery. Some operations didn’t recover.
Bee management was in an odd place in 1993. States without Africanized honey bees (AHB) wanted nothing to do with them. States that had them really didn’t know what to do with them. There was much talk about restricting incoming bees from AHB areas. This never formally happened, but beekeepers were frequently hostile toward other beekeepers who migrated from AHB areas.
Making matters worse was varroa and tracheal mite infestations. No one knew what to do with them either. Across the U.S., some bee colonies were strong and healthy while others harbored exotic pests or exotic genetics. Beekeeping was patchwork of management schemes across the country.
The internet was playing an increasing role in information dispersal – both correct and incorrect information. Oddly, it was an exciting time to be in beekeeping but not exactly a happy time for beekeeping. Pollination was frequently mentioned as a necessity to U.S. food production, but other battles had to be fought first.
2025: Improvements and advances in honey bee genetics and nutrition will have made bee stocks healthier. Pheromone and odor sensors will become important in telling the beekeeper what is happening inside the hive without having to open it. The chemical profile can be fed into a computer program that will show the characteristics of the hive. Aspects of this technology will also allow the queen to be more easily found and replaced.
Beehives will be made from composite (manufactured) wood/plastic products and will be better insulated against Winter cold and Summer heat. While bees – of all species – will still be important for pollination, increasingly, genetically modified plants will not require the high levels of pollinator populations of years past.
New versions of artificial sweeteners will be developed, and nutritionally enhanced foods will be readily available, but natural honey will still be coveted as it becomes more of an antiquated oddity. The management schemes of commercial beekeepers will be significantly different from backyard beekeepers. The web will be the go-to source for most beekeeping instruction and information.
Yeah, okay, I didn’t embarrass myself. I did not see the growth of the almond industry. That has been the huge event that helped flip income growth to pollination with honey as a secondary product. I did a few guesses correctly. Can I go 55% on this one?
Obviously, I have been playing with this topic
Just as obviously, no one can tell anyone else what will be happening in 2025. But I am truly comfortable predicting this: in sixteen years, the bees will be pretty much as they are today as they were in 1993 as they were in 1977. Beekeepers and their gadgetry and their understanding will be what will change. These have been some of the thoughts of Jim “Nostradamus” Tew.
Much has changed in my personal life during the ensuing years. I have adapted to “old man” beekeeping and to keeping myself busy in my waning years, I write for bee magazines, and with much help from coworkers, I produce a weekly podcast. While I still have bees, I am not the beekeeper I once was. How can I be. Old age is a great governing factor in all our lives. I enjoyed looking back, but I don’t think I will try acting as a futurist in upcoming articles.
Thank you for slogging through this strange submission that I have made to Bee Culture Magazine.
Dr. James E. Tew
Emeritus Faculty, Entomology
The Ohio State University
tewbee2@gmail.com
Host, Honey Bee
Obscura Podcast
www.honeybeeobscura.com
1 Who Invented Microwaves? https://www.whirlpool.com/blog/kitchen/history-of-microwave.html.
2 Bellis, Mary. The History of Penicillin. https://www.thoughtco.com/history-of-penicillin-1992304 (Note: I had to update this reference from the original citation. I got the dreaded 404 error file designation on the original citation.)