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Thriving Hives:
A Matter of Science or Mere Chance?
By: David Burns
Coming out of Winter sometimes feels like playing the lottery. Instead of scratching off numbers, we are opening lids to see which hives survived the Winter. It is a gamble. Almost every year it never fails that I’ll find one skimpy hive that back in the Fall, had a failing queen, infested with mites and was low on resources, yet it pulls through the Winter. But the huge, mite free, honey packed hive doesn’t make it.
One thing I’ve learned is that we all have two pockets: one for luck and one for experience. When starting in beekeeping or any new adventure, we rely more on luck because we lack experience. Over time, as we gain more experience, we rely less on luck. When I started beekeeping almost 30 years ago, I thought I knew what I was doing, but looking back, I was relying heavily on luck because I had little knowledge or experience.
Some people are “bee-havers,” just relying on luck without applying knowledge or experience to managing their bees. For example, many beginners get lucky when their hive doesn’t swarm, even though they didn’t take any measures to prevent it. The problem is that luck isn’t reliable — it’s just a word we use when things turn out well despite a lack of preparation, action or understanding. Experienced beekeepers rely on their knowledge to manage their hives effectively.
In a recent study, scientists tackled the question of just how much “luck” (contingency) plays a role in an individual’s development and achievement. They started with mice with identical genetics, resources and environmental conditions. The study showed some male mice did indeed get lucky pulling ahead and achieving more (Zipple et al., 2025).
We attribute honey bee deaths to varroa mites, harsh Winters and viruses. Could colonies perish just from bad luck? Perhaps some colonies are better at finding not just a plentiful nectar source, but pollen and nectar that is chock-full of just the right nutrients the colony needs to explode, while another colony may never stumble upon the “goldilocks fields.” As the season progresses, one colony continues to dominate at finding fields of plenty, while the other lags behind. One increases in population, better controlling pests and diseases while the other suffers from lower population resulting in increased pests and potential diseases. All because of the sheer chance of finding that special field.
The new beekeeper may have a prize-winning colony their first year with very little experience or intervention, while the experienced beekeeper could lose a hive that simply fell into bad luck. For example, it’s bad luck if a colony finds honey in a tree from an abandoned hive as the result of insecticide poisoning. Little do the bees know that the honey is laced with insecticides.
Some colonies get lucky and small hive beetles never find them or very few varroa mites are carried in or the colony dodges environmental toxins. Two colonies could have the same high mite count, but in one, the viruses carried by the mites are very low, while in the other, they are very high.
As beekeepers we have to do our part in using science, experience and wisdom to help our bees as much as possible. But in the end, time and chance happens to us all.
I recently read the book, “Younger Next Year: Live Strong, Fit, Sexy, and Smart — Until You’re 80 and Beyond,” co-authored by Chris Crowley and Dr. Henry S. Lodge. The premise of the book is in the title: we can live long and strong into our 80s, even older. Yet, Dr. Lodge tragically died from cancer at the age of 58. I was interested to see how the fellow author would respond to his co-author’s death. He attributed it to unfortunate luck.
As beekeepers we deal with real issues such as mites, queenlessness, diseases, etc. This is where our luck runs out, and for our bees too. Education and knowledge bridge the gap between luck and experience.
Today, there are many ways we can educate ourselves, from classes and books to YouTube videos. This knowledge helps us feel more confident and make informed decisions during inspections, even if we lack years of experience. Every inspection adds to our pocket of experience.
If you’re new to beekeeping, start by preparing for common scenarios, like what to do if you have a high mite count or if your hive is queenless. Think through these types of scenarios now so you’re ready when they happen. Develop your plan of action, research treatments, and have the necessary equipment on hand. For example, if you see a swarm, know how to catch and rehome it properly. Education allows you to act effectively and gain experience.
If you’d like to watch my YouTube video where I discuss this topic in more detail, visit: https://www.honeybeesonline.com/davids-youtube-channel
Reference:
Zipple MN, Chang Kuo D, Meng X, Reichard TM, Guess K, Vogt CC, Moeller AH, Sheehan MJ. Competitive social feedback amplifies the role of early life contingency in male mice. Science. 2025 Jan 3;387(6729):81-85. doi: 10.1126/science.adq0579. Epub 2025 Jan 2. PMID: 39745972.
